Your team is 3 points behind. You have been awarded a close-in penalty near the touch-line. The referee says there is only time for one more passage of play.
Your decision: ‘Take the Points’ or ‘Go for It’? What do you decide? Your only concern is to win / lose / draw this game. Click this spreadsheet estimation tool . Just fill in the 5 red boxes in with your own best estimates. The engine then calculates the best option (in expectation).
More details on how we approached the model, including an explanation of ‘expectation’ are here . The estimation tool is NOT intended to be exhaustive, forward-looking or completely reliable.
(There is some discussion on kicking and success rates here in the New Zealand Herald ).
We hope that blog followers find it a useful guide to this type of decision-making!
Let us know what you think on @empiricalrugby1