According to ESPNScrum.com data, Argentina had a win percentage against higher ranked teams of 50%. Does that indicate the “bar” for emerging nations?
On 14th September 2009, it was announced that Argentina would join an expanded Tri-Nations (now Rugby Championship) in 2012.
We looked back at ESPNScrum.com data for the three year period prior to the announcement. The period thus included RWC 2007 in France, in which Argentina reached the semi-final.
During that three year period, Argentina had an overall win percentage of 62.5%. They played 24 matches, only one of which was against a nation that is not participating in RWC 2015 (Chile).
Their win percentage against (now) higher ranked opposition was 50%, i.e. they won 7 of 14 games against higher ranked teams, including wins against England, Ireland and France.
That would give a good indication of the standard emerging nations in RWC 2015 may need to achieve.
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|Vs RWC 2015 opposition||23||14||9||60,87%|
|vs currently higher ranked||14||7||7||50,00%|
|RWC 2007||Matches||Won||Lost||Win %|
|During RWC 2007||7||6||1||85,71%|
Sources: ESPNScrum.com, current World Rugby Rankings, Own calculations.